Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6514…3e5b economics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-2%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$18
economics 35% −$34
other 14% −$3
crypto 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.8% -12.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 9 -3.8% -12.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 13 -18.1% -25.9% 8% 8% -12.6%
all 13 -18.1% -25.9% 8% 8% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 8% -12.6%
10% -33.0% 8% -21.0%
15% -39.5% 8% -28.6%
20% -45.4% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage85d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 62¢ 60¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $574 −$16 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 24 $446 −$10 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 24 $174 −$2 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $90 −$6 -6%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 24 $216 −$5 -2%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Jun 24 $86 −$13 -15%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $172 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $286 −$2 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 24 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 01 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 01 $16 −$3 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $136 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $138 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 23¢ $40 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 23¢ $41 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 23¢ $44 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 23¢ $47 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 77¢ $152 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $154 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $136 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $138 3h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 22¢ $32 3h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 23¢ $41 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $106 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $138 3h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 38¢ $74 3h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 42¢ $86 3h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 4h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 4h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 5h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $148 6h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records