Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6515…b867 sports 412 markets active 3h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,001 (-13%) realized −$1,003 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%138W / 232L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$304
world 31% −$457
other 23% −$264
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% −$9
weather 0% +$16
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +131.1% +109.1% 50% 50% -32.2%
≤30d 41 +29.1% +16.8% 49% 44% -0.9%
≤90d 298 -35.5% -41.7% 26% 22% -36.7%
all 370 -15.9% -23.9% 37% 33% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 33% -21.9%
10% -31.2% 31% -29.4%
15% -37.9% 28% -36.2%
20% -44.0% 24% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$1,003
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses138 / 232
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions42
Markets (closed)370 / 412
History coverage129d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $59 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+22%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 59¢ 74¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 24¢ $15 $12 −$4 (-24%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 57¢ 66¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the Washington Nationals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 85¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 92¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+36%)
Will the Portland Fire make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? No 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win more than 99.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? O 99.5 57¢ 65¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 67¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will the St. Louis Cardinals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 73¢ 66¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 94¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 59¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Seattle Mariners clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 66¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 58¢ 40¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will the Cincinnati Reds clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 65¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $25 +$42 +171%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +1397%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $8 +$15 +179%
Will Taylor Hall win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $0 $0 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $31 −$25 -81%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -25%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1 +$1 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $17 $0 -2%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -18%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $33 +$47 +146%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV May 31 $31 +$24 +76%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 31 $38 +$26 +68%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 30 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $74 +$31 +42%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $38 +$16 +42%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $52 +$21 +40%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $0 $0 -97%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $0 $0 -97%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $0 $0 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $6 +$13 +214%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $105 −$103 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $14 +$8 +58%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $52 +$15 +29%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $7 +$11 +166%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $48 +$24 +50%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 20 $43 −$2 -6%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 -7%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Buffalo Sabres advance to the Conference Finals of the 2026 NHL P May 19 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? May 18 $1 $0 -2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $2 +$6 +226%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 16 $2 $0 +29%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Finals in the 20 May 16 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 16 $0 $0 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 14h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.91 · official $228.92 (match) · 1432 history records