Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6519…611b world 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17,013 (+12%) realized +$10,222 · open +$6,791
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$3,532per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$24,940now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$511
14 days+$511
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$19,387
world 44% −$3,489
other 3% −$199
weather 1% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +22.3% +10.7% 100% 100% +19.4%
≤30d 9 -35.9% -42.0% 56% 33% -10.4%
≤90d 33 -13.4% -21.6% 55% 33% -3.0%
all 33 -13.4% -21.6% 55% 33% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 33% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 24% -12.3%
15% -36.0% 18% -20.7%
20% -42.2% 12% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$2,145) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,001 vs −$616 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$24,940
Realized+$10,222
Unrealized+$6,791
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)33 / 41
History coverage83d
Avg bet$3,532
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 61¢ 91¢ $12,907 $19,260 +$6,352 (+49%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 94¢ $3,516 $3,880 +$365 (+10%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 28¢ 31¢ $477 $533 +$56 (+12%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $403 $483 +$81 (+20%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $486 $373 −$112 (-23%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $306 $348 +$42 (+14%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 18 $29 +$4 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,570 +$507 +32%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 05 $266 −$266 -100%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 05 $1,169 −$1,169 -100%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 05 $209 −$209 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $5,143 +$113 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Jun 01 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $4,116 +$1,027 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,179 +$56 +5%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $4,584 −$4,542 -99%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May? May 15 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 08 $602 −$11 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 06 $312 +$314 +101%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 05 $1,483 −$878 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 4? May 05 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 4? May 04 $250 −$208 -83%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 04 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? May 03 $628 +$123 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 3? May 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 02 $300 +$34 +12%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Apr 30 $515 +$722 +140%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 27 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $39,603 +$57 +0%
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Apr 19 $2,145 +$3,681 +172%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $8,362 +$598 +7%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $24,718 +$1,441 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 14 $15,638 +$7,303 +47%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 14 $1,410 −$49 -4%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? Apr 13 $248 +$7 +3%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $4,005 +$1,973 +49%
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P Apr 12 $1,251 −$309 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 6m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 10m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 30¢ $149 11m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 13m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 13m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 15m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 15m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 15m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 16m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $107 16m
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 17m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 18m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $372 18m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 31m
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 27¢ $47 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,939.54 · official $24,939.54 (match) · 427 history records