Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6528…b5a1 crypto 768 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (433 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$271 (+2%) realized +$291 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%451W / 308L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day433.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days+$147
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$129
weather 0% −$8
other 0% +$11
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (433 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 754 -5.8% -14.8% 60% 55% -8.7%
≤30d 759 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 54% -8.7%
≤90d 759 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 54% -8.7%
all 759 -6.2% -15.1% 59% 54% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover433.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 54% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 30% -17.4%
15% -30.7% 8% -25.4%
20% -37.5% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$291
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses451 / 308
Open positions9
Markets (closed)759 / 768
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day433.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 759 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 30? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $18 $3 −$15 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 30? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 30? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$14 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$9 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$9 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$14 -72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$3 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.49 · official $46.49 (match) · 3418 history records