Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x6528…94bb crypto 806 markets active 6h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$477 (+4%) realized +$480 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate63%504W / 298L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$530
sports 3% −$226
other 1% −$5
tech 0% −$14
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 75% -13.6%
≤30d 34 -9.3% -18.0% 62% 62% -39.4%
≤90d 334 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 47% -6.0%
all 802 -6.1% -15.0% 63% 43% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 43% -7.3%
10% -23.2% 27% -16.2%
15% -30.6% 15% -24.3%
20% -37.4% 8% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$480
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses504 / 298
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)802 / 806
History coverage148d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 802 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 22 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 20 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 16 $20 +$5 +25%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 12 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 11 $30 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 11 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 11 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 11 $9 −$6 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 11 $5 −$4 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.74 · official $10.74 (match) · 2273 history records