Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
65 0x652b…f5c2 world 63 markets active 2d ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,379 (+13%) realized +$3,471 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%28W / 26L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$383
7 days+$2,071
14 days+$2,105
30 days+$2,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$1,990
tech 12% +$566
other 11% +$609
crypto 1% −$31
finance 1% +$43
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +43.5% +29.8% 61% 57% +13.8%
≤30d 32 +56.2% +41.4% 59% 56% +12.3%
≤90d 54 +23.3% +11.5% 52% 50% +3.1%
all 54 +23.3% +11.5% 52% 50% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.5% 50% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here +0.9% 31% -6.8%
15% -8.9% 26% -15.8%
20% -17.8% 20% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$72 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized+$3,471
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses28 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions53
Markets (closed)54 / 63
History coverage59d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 64¢ 88¢ $126 $173 +$47 (+37%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $162 $115 −$47 (-29%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 93¢ $11 $103 +$92 (+830%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 15¢ 10¢ $75 $48 −$28 (-37%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 42¢ 22¢ $89 $47 −$42 (-47%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 73¢ 92¢ $26 $33 +$7 (+26%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 89¢ 18¢ $103 $21 −$83 (-80%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? Yes 36¢ 63¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+76%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-57%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 25¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+3049%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1074%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+958%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+830%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+548%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+471%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+240%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+137%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+124%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+112%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+112%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+99%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+73%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 15 $7 −$2 -31%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $178 +$48 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $237 +$356 +150%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $43 +$154 +362%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 14 $284 −$145 -51%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $413 +$142 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $232 +$29 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $151 +$31 +20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $27 −$9 -34%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 14 $90 +$3 +3%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,486 +$376 +25%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,384 +$291 +21%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $56 +$58 +104%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $30 −$23 -78%
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $20 +$57 +280%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $4 +$13 +317%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $248 −$90 -36%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $150 +$276 +184%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? Jun 11 $53 +$10 +18%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,305 +$183 +14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $713 +$269 +38%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 11 $58 −$56 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $814 +$144 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $560 −$38 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $66 −$9 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $37 +$16 +43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $32 +$65 +204%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $1,174 −$74 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 25 $799 +$113 +14%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? Apr 25 $2,604 +$377 +14%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $2,432 +$1,794 +74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $3,551 −$1,260 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $2,202 −$40 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $1,763 +$284 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4AM ET Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12AM ET Apr 19 $28 +$13 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6PM ET Apr 19 $28 −$17 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2AM ET Apr 18 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8PM ET Apr 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9PM ET Apr 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 42h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, SELL Yes 4¢ $2 43h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, SELL Yes 5¢ $2 44h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $226 44h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $341 44h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 42¢ $197 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $95 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $24 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $151 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $98 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $25 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $44 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $174 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $76 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $44 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $174 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $174 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $44 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $44 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $174 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $44 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $174 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $28 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $76 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $8 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.01 · official $581.06 (match) · 1371 history records