Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x652e…ef62 other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-10%) realized −$99 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%40W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$96
world 26% −$20
politics 19% +$17
sports 10% +$38
tech 5% −$45
finance 2% −$33
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.3% -31.5% 25% 25% -13.8%
≤30d 9 -32.7% -39.1% 22% 22% -17.8%
≤90d 14 -32.0% -38.5% 21% 21% -30.3%
all 144 -16.2% -24.2% 28% 24% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 24% -17.3%
10% -31.5% 23% -25.3%
15% -38.1% 20% -32.5%
20% -44.2% 19% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses40 / 104
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)144 / 154
History coverage239d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 72¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+48%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 42¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+196%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 28¢ $18 $8 −$10 (-55%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 36¢ 12¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? No 52¢ 3¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 24¢ 2¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-93%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-98%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $25 +$56 +227%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Starmer say "Kid" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $6 −$6 -98%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 16 $7 +$4 +54%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 03 $72 −$31 -44%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 31 $17 −$2 -11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31? Mar 26 $6 −$3 -53%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Mar 17 $9 −$1 -12%
Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 10 $21 +$1 +5%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during Monday press conference? Mar 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 09 $23 +$6 +24%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) Mar 09 $10 +$35 +348%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8) Mar 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Mar 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? Mar 01 $3 −$1 -40%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 01 $11 +$5 +48%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $35 +$38 +107%
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February Feb 10 $17 +$6 +35%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Feb 01 $2 +$4 +178%
Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO? Feb 01 $3 +$9 +285%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dan Hooker win by KO or TKO? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jan 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jan 31 $15 +$1 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jan 30 $4 +$2 +56%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jan 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? Jan 28 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $5 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $5 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $66 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $89 12h
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? BUY No 52¢ $10 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $4 2d
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 3d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $25 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 3d
Will Starmer say "Kid" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 18¢ $10 13d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 17d
Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 19d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $41 73d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 76d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 76d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 81d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 81d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.61 · official $90.97 · 290 history records