Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x652e…4a94 other 392 markets active 9h ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+2%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%122W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day56.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$50
14 days−$55
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$112
sports 38% −$202
weather 7% +$2
finance 6% +$5
politics 2% +$13
crypto 2% −$39
world 1% +$4
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -16.4% -24.4% 21% 21% -25.3%
≤30d 176 -13.1% -21.4% 23% 23% -18.4%
≤90d 384 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 28% -9.6%
all 384 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 28% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 28% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 23% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 19% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 17% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses122 / 262
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)384 / 392
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day56.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 $0 -32%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 $0 -29%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -77%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 $0 -47%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 -10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $8 −$8 -89%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 −$3 -92%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $4 −$3 -63%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +222%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -14%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -30%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -29%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 $0 -22%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$3 -37%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Bosnia and He Jun 18 $1 $0 -37%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 $0 -10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $17 +$8 +46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $7 −$4 -55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 −$1 -54%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -31%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 $0 -37%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$2 -63%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 -18%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -31%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $1 $0 +41%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -40%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -63%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 $0 -21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$8 -62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 +$9 +425%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 15¢ $1 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 11h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 21h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 4¢ $1 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 16¢ $1 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $1 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 2¢ $0 35h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 18¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records