Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x6530…d760
crypto · 369 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$562 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$584 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,183
Realized+$584
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses216 / 142
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions11
Markets (closed)358 / 369
History coverage99d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 11 History 358 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$115
14 days+$509
30 days+$671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 76¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-34%)
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Mandel Nallo 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Denis Shapovalov 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs RRQ Tora (BO3) - MPL Malaysia Regular Season RRQ Tora 78¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jamie Siraj 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Quetta Gladiators Lahore Qalandars 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 5? Jun 10 $3 +$6 +202%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? Jun 10 $2 +$8 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 10 $15 +$3 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 10 $10 +$11 +103%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 5? Jun 10 $9 +$14 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 10 $1 +$24 +2286%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5? Jun 10 $10 +$42 +406%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 10 $31 +$56 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $32 −$31 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 04 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 5? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 5? Jun 04 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 5? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $47 +$401 +854%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions Jun 04 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $123 +$223 +182%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 4? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $51 +$31 +62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? May 31 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$503
other 10% +$343
sports 5% +$42
weather 2% +$307
world 2% +$372
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 5m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 1h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 23h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 3d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 3d
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +168.1% +142.5% 56% 50% +34.8%
≤30d 69 +44.8% +31.0% 48% 46% +42.8%
≤90d 174 +10.3% -0.2% 52% 45% +4.3%
all 358 +0.5% -9.1% 60% 46% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 46% -7.0%
10% -17.8% 34% -15.9%
15% -25.7% 25% -24.0%
20% -33.0% 21% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,183.37 · official $1,183.37 (match) · 975 history records