Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6530…e127 sports 356 markets active 0h ago coverage 940d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-1%) realized −$61 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%122W / 162L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$52
14 days+$46
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$3
other 26% −$74
politics 13% −$25
world 6% +$14
crypto 2% −$3
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% +$10
finance 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +12.1% +1.4% 57% 47% +11.5%
≤30d 203 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 33% -8.0%
≤90d 229 -6.2% -15.1% 46% 34% -13.6%
all 284 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 30% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 30% -10.3%
10% -24.6% 24% -18.9%
15% -31.8% 21% -26.7%
20% -38.5% 19% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

940d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses122 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions71
Markets (closed)284 / 356
History coverage940d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 71 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+49%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 75¢ 96¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+28%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 75¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 52¢ 32¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 78¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 71¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 75¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? Yes 47¢ 61¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? No 80¢ 79¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -10%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 +$26 +294%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $11 +$7 +58%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$8 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -41%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -46%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +66%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +30%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -5%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $3 −$1 -37%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7m
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 32m
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 44m
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 57m
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $3 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 3h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 4h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $4 6h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 6h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 6h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 7h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 9h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 10h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2 10h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 13¢ $3 12h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 13¢ $0 12h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $3 13h
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 13h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $3 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 80¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $1 15h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 16h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.14 · official $192.52 (match) · 1070 history records