Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
65 0x6534…240c sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$934 (+87%) realized +$762 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$927
other 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +76.8%
≤30d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +76.8%
≤90d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +76.8%
all 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +76.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 50% +76.8%
10% -15.6% 50% +59.8%
15% -23.8% 25% +44.4%
20% -31.2% 25% +30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +95% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$478 vs −$115 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$472
Realized+$762
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Otto Virtanen 56¢ 100¢ $200 $357 +$157 (+78%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 57¢ 66¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $530 +$956 +180%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 56¢ $203 47m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 57¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $203 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $428 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.88 · official $468.37 (match) · 9 history records