Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x653b…c098 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-14%) realized +$47 · open −$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$157
sports 43% $0
crypto 11% −$65
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 38% -17.2%
≤30d 16 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 38% -17.2%
≤90d 16 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 38% -17.2%
all 16 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 38% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 38% -17.2%
10% -40.4% 31% -25.1%
15% -46.2% 31% -32.3%
20% -51.5% 19% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$24 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$134
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $63 $8 −$55 (-87%)
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$63 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 +$33 +101%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $19 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +43%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $65 39m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 31h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $66 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $66 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 92¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 91¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 88¢ $20 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.29 · official $10.01 (match) · 32 history records