Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x653e…082e other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$103 (-43%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$103
sports 15% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.5% -51.6% 25% 25% -52.0%
≤30d 4 -46.5% -51.6% 25% 25% -52.0%
≤90d 4 -46.5% -51.6% 25% 25% -52.0%
all 4 -46.5% -51.6% 25% 25% -52.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 25% -52.0%
10% -56.2% 0% -56.6%
15% -60.5% 0% -60.8%
20% -64.3% 0% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$40 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$3 -7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$15 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 53m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $33 55m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $115 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.25 · official $15.25 (match) · 7 history records