Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

65 0x6542…b418 sports 26 markets active 7h ago coverage 228d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$53 (+13%) realized +$53 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%3W / 23L

Drawdown92%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$39

7 days−$39

14 days−$74

30 days+$115

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)+4.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	18	+66.1%	+50.3%	17%	17%	+30.6%
≤90d	22	+35.9%	+23.0%	14%	14%	+13.6%
all	26	+15.0%	+4.1%	12%	12%	-5.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.1%	12%	-5.1%
10%	-5.9%	12%	-14.2%
15%	-15.0%	12%	-22.5%
20%	-23.3%	12%	-30.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +125% → late -95% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$107 vs −$13 · ×8.1 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$53

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses3 / 23

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)26 / 26

History coverage228d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown92%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 26 Trades

no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 25	$4	−$4	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 24	$4	−$4	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 24	$16	−$16	-100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 11	$20	−$8	-39%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 07	$36	−$35	-98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 06	$26	−$25	-98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 05	$10	−$10	-98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 03	$10	−$10	-97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 02	$36	−$35	-98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 01	$26	+$130	+509%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	May 31	$5	+$14	+276%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	May 31	$10	+$178	+1845%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	May 30	$10	−$10	-97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	May 17	$10	−$9	-98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	May 17	$10	−$10	-98%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	May 16	$11	−$11	-98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	May 16	$8	−$8	-98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Mar 01	$30	−$30	-100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Jan 27	$10	−$10	-100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Jan 27	$10	−$10	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$69	−$9	-13%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$4	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$5	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$4	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	21h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Top Esports	32¢	$21	11d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Team WE	10¢	$15	11d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Anyones Legend	20¢	$10	17d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Bilibili Gaming	81¢	$10	17d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Team WE	29¢	$36	18d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY JD Gaming	24¢	$26	19d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY LGD Gaming	13¢	$10	20d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY EDward Gaming	7¢	$10	22d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY ThunderTalk Gaming	25¢	$5	22d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY ThunderTalk Gaming	53¢	$30	23d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	SELL Team WE	100¢	$156	23d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Team WE	16¢	$5	23d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Team WE	16¢	$10	23d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Team WE	16¢	$10	23d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	SELL Top Esports	100¢	$19	24d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Top Esports	26¢	$5	24d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Team WE	5¢	$10	25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY EDward Gaming	8¢	$10	26d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Anyones Legend	28¢	$10	38d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Invictus Gaming	28¢	$10	38d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Team WE	26¢	$11	39d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	BUY EDward Gaming	30¢	$8	39d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records