Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6544…fb05 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$950 (+45%) realized +$956 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 27L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$227
14 days−$227
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$303
other 47% +$1,226
politics 4% −$90
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 34 -25.2% -32.3% 21% 21% +40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 21% +40.7%
10% -38.8% 18% +27.3%
15% -44.7% 18% +15.0%
20% -50.1% 18% +3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +55% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$33 · ×7.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized+$956
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage605d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $76 −$74 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 15 $195 +$154 +79%
Will Natus Vincere win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner Dec 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 14 $40 +$21 +51%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $71 −$40 -56%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Dec 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $85 −$35 -41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Dec 13 $79 −$11 -14%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Dec 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Dec 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Imperial (BO1) Dec 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1) Dec 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Dec 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Dec 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Dec 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 12 $60 +$237 +394%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Dec 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 11 $78 +$17 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 11 $40 +$68 +170%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $113 +$949 +841%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 02 $105 +$269 +257%
Will Weibo Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Oct 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Georgia rally on October 2 Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 2 or more times during Georgia rally on October Oct 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob Oct 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $46 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $76 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 8¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 24¢ $31 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 37h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 37h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) BUY FaZe 6¢ $3 187d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) BUY FaZe 9¢ $4 187d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) BUY FaZe 14¢ $15 187d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner BUY FaZe 4¢ $3 187d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner BUY FaZe 16¢ $15 187d
Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 187d
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? SELL Yes 41¢ $61 187d
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 188d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 9¢ $5 188d
Will Natus Vincere win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 188d
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 188d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) SELL FaZe 79¢ $114 188d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 19¢ $10 188d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $25 188d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) SELL FaZe 84¢ $9 188d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY FaZe 16¢ $9 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.73 · official $406.73 (match) · 111 history records