trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 100% | 50% | +2.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -20.1% | -27.7% | 50% | 25% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -20.1% | -27.7% | 50% | 25% | -8.9% |
| all | 23 | -37.7% | -43.6% | 17% | 13% | -50.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -43.6% | 13% | -50.1% |
| 10% | -49.0% | 9% | -54.9% |
| 15% | -53.9% | 9% | -59.3% |
| 20% | -58.4% | 9% | -63.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 82¢ | 96¢ | $50 | $59 | +$9 (+18%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 82¢ | 94¢ | $50 | $57 | +$7 (+14%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | $50 | $51 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-15%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-28%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | $5 | $7 | +$2 (+39%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 12¢ | $5 | $7 | +$2 (+31%) |
| Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 63¢ | 46¢ | $4 | $3 | −$1 (-28%) |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 29¢ | 26¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | Jun 21 | $60 | +$10 | +17% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 21 | $50 | +$5 | +10% |
| Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 04 | $5 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 03 | $14 | −$14 | -98% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Mar 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? | Mar 17 | $10 | −$8 | -77% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February? | Feb 03 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary E | Nov 03 | $3 | +$11 | +366% |
| Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? | Oct 30 | $28 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary e | Oct 30 | $7 | +$25 | +351% |
| Will turnout be between 69% and 72% in the Netherlands Parliamentary E | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by November 30, 2025 | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will VVD win 14–15 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary electio | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will VVD win 16–17 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary electio | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will CDA win 22–24 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary electio | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the next Dutch government be another combination? | Oct 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the fifth most s | Oct 29 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will JA21 win 11–12 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary electi | Oct 29 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will PVV win 27–29 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary electio | Oct 29 | $17 | −$3 | -20% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 13 | $162 | −$162 | -100% |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025? | Sep 13 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |