Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
65 0x6547…82b3 world 56 markets active 6d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,712 (-18%) realized −$1,675 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$364
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1,582
tech 18% −$95
sports 14% −$165
other 10% +$90
finance 7% +$198
economics 4% −$50
crypto 3% −$161
politics 0% −$6
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -34.1% -40.4% 44% 22% -30.7%
≤30d 19 -22.0% -29.4% 47% 32% -9.9%
≤90d 19 -22.0% -29.4% 47% 32% -9.9%
all 53 -26.4% -33.4% 49% 30% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 30% -26.4%
10% -39.8% 17% -33.4%
15% -45.6% 15% -39.9%
20% -50.9% 8% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$94 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,675
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage110d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-97%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $10 +$9 +84%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $346 −$346 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $200 +$7 +3%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $901 +$45 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $876 +$43 +5%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $607 +$235 +39%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 15 $780 −$114 -15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$22 +213%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $537 +$183 +34%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 +$9 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 17? Mar 19 $139 −$139 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Swiss National Bank decreases policy rate after March Meeting? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Mar 19 $258 −$258 -100%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Mar 18 $255 +$3 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $95 +$15 +16%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $119 +$25 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Mar 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 Mar 18 $117 −$111 -95%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 18 $800 −$230 -29%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8) Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $92 +$37 +40%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 16 $208 −$89 -43%
Will "Holy Shit" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of Mar 11 $144 +$6 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 10 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 09 $18 −$17 -90%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 08 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popu Mar 08 $103 +$9 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $952 −$952 -100%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Mar 07 $7 +$3 +48%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $106 +$22 +21%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Mar 04 $18 +$3 +17%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Mar 04 $287 −$63 -22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 04 $308 −$21 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 03 $40 −$21 -53%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 02 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 20¢ $19 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $300 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 10¢ $10 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 82¢ $207 6d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY No 0¢ $13 6d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY No 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY No 0¢ $6 6d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY Yes 1¢ $6 6d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 49¢ $10 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $200 6d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $946 6d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $901 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $449 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $166 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $300 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $561 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $296 7d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? SELL Up 99¢ $843 7d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 70¢ $607 8d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 55¢ $666 8d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 63¢ $70 8d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 63¢ $710 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $1.15 (match) · 133 history records