Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6547…01bd crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-7%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$112
sports 17% +$6
other 9% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -27.1% -34.0% 37% 26% -15.9%
≤30d 38 -27.1% -34.0% 37% 26% -15.9%
≤90d 38 -27.1% -34.0% 37% 26% -15.9%
all 38 -27.1% -34.0% 37% 26% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 26% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -40.4% 24% -23.9%
15% -46.1% 16% -31.3%
20% -51.4% 16% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $111 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $152 +$14 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$12 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$10 -14%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$18 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$16 +157%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$12 +144%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$25 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$27 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$94 +460%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 −$27 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $113 51m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $111 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $120 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $32 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $80 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $28 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records