Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6548…9108 weather 418 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,152 (+3%) realized +$1,111 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate75%307W / 100L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$248
14 days−$1,192
30 days−$943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$681
other 1% −$43
finance 1% +$93
world 0% +$103
crypto 0% −$21
politics 0% +$2
sports 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -14.2% -22.4% 55% 28% -14.8%
≤30d 190 -0.9% -10.4% 66% 23% -13.6%
≤90d 375 +5.8% -4.3% 75% 30% -8.1%
all 407 +6.6% -3.5% 75% 32% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 32% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 18% -16.7%
15% -21.2% 11% -24.7%
20% -28.9% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$29 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized+$1,111
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses307 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)407 / 418
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? No 88¢ 100¢ $167 $190 +$23 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? No 78¢ 100¢ $47 $60 +$13 (+28%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No 80¢ 92¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+16%)
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 70¢ $21 $28 +$7 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? No 89¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+9%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+25%)
Megaquake by June 30? No 50¢ 97¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+92%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+34%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $6 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $193 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $146 +$18 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24? Jun 24 $141 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $99 −$12 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $11 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 −$16 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $176 +$24 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $294 −$259 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $271 −$20 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $18 −$8 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $61 −$16 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $195 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $197 +$3 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 +$13 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $53 +$36 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $229 +$27 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $72 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $592 −$105 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $321 +$53 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $206 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +258%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $77 +$22 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$23 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$33 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$20 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$9 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 84¢ $28 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 84¢ $41 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 84¢ $14 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $18 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $44 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $19 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $13 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $14 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.57 · official $430.58 (match) · 3500 history records