Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6548…906d crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$488 (-30%) realized −$488 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$358
other 6% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 55% -21.3%
≤30d 11 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 55% -21.3%
≤90d 11 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 55% -21.3%
all 69 -19.3% -27.0% 41% 41% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 41% -34.5%
10% -34.0% 41% -40.7%
15% -40.3% 36% -46.5%
20% -46.2% 29% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$488
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage124d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$38 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7PM ET Feb 16 $25 +$20 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 15 $20 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10AM ET Feb 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 15 $20 +$36 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 15 $63 +$28 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8AM ET Feb 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 15 $100 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 15 $30 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 15 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$27 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 15 $15 +$14 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $43 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $33 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $29 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $46 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records