Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
65 0x654a…cc32 world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,026 (+6%) realized +$6,264 · open −$238
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%44W / 33L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$1,175per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$10,662
other 21% −$9,019
sports 6% +$1,153
finance 2% −$154
crypto 1% +$187
politics 1% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.0% -45.7% 29% 29% -50.5%
≤30d 32 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 53% -9.9%
≤90d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 43% -6.2%
all 77 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 43% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 43% -6.2%
10% -18.3% 34% -15.2%
15% -26.2% 21% -23.4%
20% -33.5% 14% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,071) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$553 vs −$640 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$5,873
Realized+$6,264
Unrealized−$238
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses44 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions6
Markets (closed)77 / 83
History coverage68d
Avg bet$1,175
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,078 $1,265 +$187 (+17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,256 +$256 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,047 +$47 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,529 $968 −$561 (-37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,004 $859 −$145 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $500 $478 −$22 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $346 −$80 -23%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $1,000 +$281 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $770 +$230 +30%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $829 −$124 -15%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $1,000 +$539 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $999 +$184 +18%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $504 +$163 +32%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,034 −$630 -61%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,009 +$444 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $966 +$522 +54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,000 +$3,003 +150%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $512 +$2,265 +442%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $411 −$242 -59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 +$1,382 +138%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $1,000 −$346 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 05 $938 −$938 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$695 +70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,000 +$365 +36%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? May 31 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3,022 +$426 +14%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $532 +$295 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,000 +$389 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $1,000 +$1,889 +189%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $1,000 +$1,041 +104%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 24 $500 +$73 +15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $3,000 +$699 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $356 +$48 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $1,000 +$42 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 11 $2,074 −$1,349 -65%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $1,436 −$1,194 -83%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2,012 +$507 +25%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $123 −$120 -97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $205 −$200 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $3,003 +$707 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 08 $1,071 −$616 -58%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $3,355 −$266 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 06 $1,933 −$983 -51%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 06 $2,840 −$72 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 17¢ $35 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $232 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $346 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,109 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $846 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 4d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $705 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $67 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $46 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $148 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $55 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $736 5d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $34 5d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 24¢ $1,000 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,539 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,183 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $234 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $263 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,872.77 · official $5,872.77 (match) · 500 history records