Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x654d…ba8f
crypto · 291 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10,183 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10,181 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$10,181
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses180 / 564
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)744 / 291
History coverage2d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day2003.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 744 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,181
7 days−$10,181
14 days−$10,181
30 days−$10,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Crewe Alexandra FC win on 2026-04-18? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Barrow AFC vs. Walsall FC: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-18? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5 Under 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
UD Las Palmas vs. CD Leganés: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Crewe Alexandra FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Barrow AFC vs. Walsall FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-18? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
UD Las Palmas vs. CD Leganés: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Mansfield Town FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
CA Talleres vs. CD Riestra: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Mantova 1911 vs. US Avellino 1912: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Club Tijuana vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grenoble Foot 38 win on 2026-04-17? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $36 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $36 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $36 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $36 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $36 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $29 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $33 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $33 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $32 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $33 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-64.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 744 -60.7% -64.5% 24% 21% -22.7%
≤30d 744 -60.7% -64.5% 24% 21% -22.7%
≤90d 744 -60.7% -64.5% 24% 21% -22.7%
all 744 -60.7% -64.5% 24% 21% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2003.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.5% 21% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -67.9% 17% -30.1%
15% -71.0% 12% -36.9%
20% -73.8% 8% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $0.03 · 3500 history records