Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6553…1025 crypto 662 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$365 (-3%) realized −$365 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate56%367W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day53.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$473
7 days−$387
14 days−$723
30 days−$704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$456
sports 5% −$189
other 1% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -41.5% -47.0% 39% 33% -30.4%
≤30d 429 -11.7% -20.1% 50% 17% -15.5%
≤90d 658 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 11% -15.0%
all 658 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 11% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 11% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 8% -23.2%
15% -33.3% 5% -30.6%
20% -39.8% 4% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$365
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses367 / 291
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)658 / 662
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day53.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 658 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 60¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+4%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+79%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-90%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $93 −$92 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $305 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $127 +$74 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $181 +$76 +42%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$87 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 06 $75 +$59 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 05 $70 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $33 −$33 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 04 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $60 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $11 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $23 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $8 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $106 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 02 $63 +$22 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 02 $63 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 02 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $203 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $93 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $203 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $98 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.41 · official $227.41 (match) · 3500 history records