Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

65
0x6553…aa3c
sports · 487 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$417 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$391 · open −$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$282
Realized−$391
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses240 / 236
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions11
Markets (closed)476 / 487
History coverage50d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 11 History 476 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$212
14 days−$621
30 days−$2,382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Yes 54¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 41¢ 40¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ 62¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Yes 50¢ 51¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Sinja Kraus 48¢ 18¢ $40 $15 −$25 (-61%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 47¢ 47¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jeline Vandromme 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson Jones Emerson Jones 61¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Yes 47¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 51¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres 35¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Bruno Silva 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 11 $25 +$28 +109%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $20 +$18 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $36 +$38 +107%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $71 +$75 +105%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $46 +$48 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $10 +$15 +146%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $23 −$23 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $25 +$42 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $20 +$28 +140%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $25 +$29 +114%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $25 +$20 +79%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $71 +$48 +67%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $15 +$15 +101%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 07 $20 +$13 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $15 +$12 +79%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $30 +$23 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $61 +$67 +109%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $20 +$18 +90%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $46 +$46 +101%
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery Jun 06 $5 +$5 +93%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $61 −$60 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $15 +$15 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $10 +$11 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $10 +$11 +109%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $30 −$30 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $10 +$9 +90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $15 +$18 +119%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $25 +$25 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $10 +$12 +119%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 04 $81 +$58 +72%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $71 +$44 +62%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $61 +$49 +80%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $22 −$22 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 04 $25 +$36 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$375
other 0% −$30
politics 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $35 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 48¢ $41 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 41¢ $46 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v BUY Yes 50¢ $22 10h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $20 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $35 13h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 18h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 64¢ $5 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 19h
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Dominika Salkova 56¢ $30 22h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v BUY No 47¢ $25 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 37h
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 52¢ $30 41h
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 65¢ $20 46h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 56¢ $20 46h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 46h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $71 47h
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $15 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 46¢ $23 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $36 2d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 48¢ $41 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 2d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Jeline Vandromme 41¢ $10 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 2d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $20 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 37¢ $51 3d
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan BUY Katie Swan 48¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +14.3% +3.4% 56% 56% +9.0%
≤30d 236 -36.8% -42.9% 31% 31% -37.9%
≤90d 476 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% -11.6%
all 476 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 50% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% -11.6%
10% -21.3% 48% -20.1%
15% -28.9% 47% -27.8%
20% -35.9% 41% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.39 · official $282.39 (match) · 949 history records