trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +10.7% | +0.2% | 67% | 67% | +38.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +13.7% | +2.9% | 80% | 40% | +67.8% |
| all | 17 | +8.9% | -1.5% | 88% | 24% | +63.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.5% | 24% | +63.1% |
| 10% | -10.9% | 24% | +47.5% |
| 15% | -19.5% | 18% | +33.3% |
| 20% | -27.4% | 18% | +20.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | $295 | $292 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $80 | $82 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont | Jun 07 | $5 | +$1 | +27% |
| Spread: Thunder (-5.5) | Jun 07 | $6 | +$6 | +105% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on May 27? | May 26 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 09 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr | May 02 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 | Apr 21 | $186 | +$195 | +105% |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 | Apr 17 | $100 | +$86 | +86% |
| X banned in U.K. by March 31? | Apr 14 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? | Apr 14 | $3 | $0 | +4% |
| Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? | Apr 14 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | Mar 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? | Mar 09 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | Mar 09 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | Feb 23 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Feb 23 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Feb 23 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: December | Jan 23 | $1 | $0 | +1% |