trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -56.5% | -60.7% | 33% | 33% | -58.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -39.8% | -45.6% | 33% | 33% | -41.1% |
| all | 22 | -22.8% | -30.1% | 41% | 36% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.1% | 36% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -36.8% | 23% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -42.9% | 18% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -48.5% | 5% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 50¢ | 57¢ | $74 | $85 | +$11 (+15%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50¢ | 42¢ | $74 | $63 | −$11 (-15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 10 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 08 | $2 | +$1 | +48% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? | May 28 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Thunder vs. Suns | May 07 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | May 07 | $2 | +$3 | +197% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | Apr 23 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 31? | Apr 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? | Apr 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 6? | Apr 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 2? | Apr 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26? | Mar 31 | $2 | +$1 | +34% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 17? | Mar 23 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Solana Up or Down on March 16? | Mar 17 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 27? | Feb 28 | $5,367 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Feb 27 | $5,053 | $0 | -0% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 9? | Feb 21 | $1 | $0 | +37% |
| Solana Up or Down on February 4? | Feb 06 | $1 | $0 | +19% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on February 3? | Feb 04 | $1 | $0 | +39% |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jan 27 | $5 | $0 | -0% |