Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x655a…8fad other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$54 (-4%) realized −$21 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$146
14 days−$135
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$353
sports 26% +$251
crypto 19% −$132
politics 7% −$12
world 2% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.3% -15.3% 14% 14% -37.1%
≤30d 62 +2.9% -6.9% 23% 23% -14.2%
≤90d 72 +6.5% -3.6% 24% 24% -16.2%
all 72 +6.5% -3.6% 24% 24% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 24% -16.2%
10% -12.9% 19% -24.2%
15% -21.3% 18% -31.5%
20% -29.0% 17% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$15 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 55
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage33d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $36 $3 −$33 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 +$2 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$49 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $17 +$251 +1519%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 07 $60 −$5 -8%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$5 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $8 +$106 +1288%
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kenya win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $29 +$114 +388%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 30 $36 −$35 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $75 +$171 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 30 $15 −$14 -95%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 30 $32 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 29 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $19 −$11 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 29 $11 +$8 +76%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 29 $47 −$40 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $37 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $15 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 30h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 43h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 54¢ $21 43h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $19 45h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 23¢ $15 47h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $33 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $62 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $57 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $268 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $42 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 12d
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.31 · official $3.79 (match) · 161 history records