Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x655b…ec8b sports 634 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate74%468W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$29
14 days−$50
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -1.6% -10.9% 59% 25% -11.9%
≤30d 626 -0.6% -10.0% 74% 20% -10.7%
≤90d 629 -0.6% -10.1% 74% 20% -10.8%
all 629 -0.6% -10.1% 74% 20% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 20% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 7% -19.3%
15% -26.5% 1% -27.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses468 / 161
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)629 / 634
History coverage48d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 629 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Lourinha: Thijs Boogaard vs Fabrizio Andaloro Thijs Boogaard 72¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+39%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovic Ajla Tomljanovic 77¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
ITF Klosters: Emily Seibold vs Berta Passola Emily Seibold 74¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Marie Bouzkova 64¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel Jun 20 $4 −$1 -15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $4 −$1 -28%
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Lidia Encheva Jun 20 $3 −$1 -29%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $4 −$1 -38%
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Victoria Bosio Jun 20 $4 −$1 -31%
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 20 $3 $0 -14%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova Jun 20 $3 $0 -10%
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu Jun 19 $19 −$3 -15%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $18 +$1 +3%
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 19 $4 $0 -5%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $3 +$2 +44%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $3 −$1 -29%
ITF Tulsa: Bruno Kuzuhara vs Gavin Young Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 18 $3 −$1 -36%
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Anna Kubareva Jun 18 $4 −$2 -67%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Jenny Lim Jun 18 $4 +$1 +14%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $4 −$1 -30%
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 18 $4 −$1 -16%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $5 −$1 -17%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick Jun 18 $4 $0 -12%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Leo Raquillet Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
ITF Lourinha: Joao Silva vs John Echeverria Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $4 −$1 -16%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
ITF Bolszewo: Briana Szabo vs Marcelina Podlinska Jun 18 $4 −$1 -22%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $5 −$1 -20%
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrise Zeltina vs Masha Lazarenko Jun 18 $5 $0 +11%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs Adhithya Ganesan Jun 18 $4 +$1 +12%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $4 −$1 -18%
ITF Ystad: Lucie Petruzelova vs Anika Jaskova Jun 18 $5 $0 +11%
ITF Milano: Fausto Tabacco vs Petr Nesterov Jun 18 $4 −$1 -13%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Amandine Hesse Jun 18 $4 +$1 +13%
ITF Samobor: Luca Castagnola vs Andrey Chepelev Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
ITF Ystad: Thea Frodin vs Camilla Zanolini Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $4 +$1 +18%
ITF San Gregorio: Paula Ormaechea vs Vittoria Paganetti Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Daria Egorova Jun 18 $4 −$1 -15%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 64¢ $3 2m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel SELL Solana Sierra 64¢ $3 7m
ITF Klosters: Emily Seibold vs Berta Passola BUY Emily Seibold 74¢ $4 13m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel BUY Solana Sierra 74¢ $4 18m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 54¢ $3 28m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 73¢ $4 31m
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Lidia Encheva SELL Selena Janicijevic 49¢ $2 34m
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Lidia Encheva BUY Selena Janicijevic 68¢ $1 39m
ITF Haskovo: Selena Janicijevic vs Lidia Encheva BUY Selena Janicijevic 68¢ $2 39m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 46¢ $2 50m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 72¢ $4 56m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 77¢ $4 58m
ITF Lourinha: Thijs Boogaard vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Thijs Boogaard 72¢ $1 1h
ITF Lourinha: Thijs Boogaard vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Thijs Boogaard 72¢ $3 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Victoria Bosio SELL Julie Pastikova 52¢ $3 2h
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Victoria Bosio BUY Julie Pastikova 74¢ $4 2h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz SELL Berfu Cengiz 58¢ $3 3h
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova SELL Francesca Curmi 61¢ $3 3h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Berfu Cengiz 66¢ $3 3h
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Alevtina Ibragimova BUY Francesca Curmi 66¢ $3 3h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu SELL Celia Cervino Ruiz 14¢ $4 13h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 24¢ $4 13h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 24¢ $3 13h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu SELL Ru Xi Wu 60¢ $12 13h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Ru Xi Wu 57¢ $3 13h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Ru Xi Wu 57¢ $1 13h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Ru Xi Wu 57¢ $1 13h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Ru Xi Wu 60¢ $6 13h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 92¢ $18 13h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 89¢ $18 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.15 · official $16.15 (match) · 1448 history records