Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x655c…1a00 crypto 1324 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,343 (-5%) realized −$3,343 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%459W / 865L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days−$510
14 days−$864
30 days−$1,805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$707
other 20% −$1,317
politics 14% −$491
finance 10% −$572
crypto 9% −$145
sports 7% −$301
weather 4% −$121
tech 2% −$151
culture 1% −$44
economics 1% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -7.3% -16.1% 1% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 222 -6.7% -15.6% 2% 0% -14.2%
≤90d 1037 -6.0% -14.9% 29% 27% -15.3%
all 1324 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 33% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 33% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 27% -23.2%
15% -29.8% 12% -30.6%
20% -36.7% 6% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,343
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses459 / 865
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1324 / 1324
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1324 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $196 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 20 $150 −$7 -5%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $170 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $136 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $125 +$2 +2%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 20 $72 −$5 -6%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $250 −$33 -13%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $201 −$30 -15%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $317 −$24 -8%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $150 −$5 -3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $158 −$10 -6%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 20 $308 −$14 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 20 $62 −$4 -7%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $249 −$5 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $250 −$2 -1%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $192 −$6 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 19 $293 −$9 -3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -6%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $203 −$7 -4%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $154 −$10 -6%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $315 −$12 -4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $164 −$6 -4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $142 −$6 -4%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 19 $140 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $162 −$11 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $106 −$5 -4%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $284 −$12 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $75 −$3 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 19 $159 −$6 -4%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 18 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 18 $81 −$38 -46%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $99 −$4 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $93 −$3 -4%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 18 $150 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $0 $0 -3%
Will T1 win MSI 2026? Jun 17 $44 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 17? Jun 17 $105 −$19 -18%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 20 Jun 17 $80 −$60 -75%
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 17 $154 −$8 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 59¢ $145 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 59¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL No 44¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 44¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 58¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 57¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? SELL No 47¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 47¢ $4 11h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $143 11h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $150 11h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 68¢ $167 12h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 68¢ $170 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 39¢ $134 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $136 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 54¢ $53 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 52¢ $51 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 48¢ $23 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 50¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 50¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 50¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 50¢ $16 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 50¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 50¢ $25 13h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals SELL No 66¢ $2 15h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $2 15h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL Yes 28¢ $68 17h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY Yes 29¢ $72 17h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL No 70¢ $217 18h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 80¢ $250 18h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $100 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records