Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x655d…f9c1 crypto 167 markets active 5d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate65%109W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$13
world 1% $0
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$2
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -27.9% -34.8% 48% 42% -26.0%
≤30d 167 -5.2% -14.2% 65% 56% -12.6%
≤90d 167 -5.2% -14.2% 65% 56% -12.6%
all 167 -5.2% -14.2% 65% 56% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 56% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 35% -21.0%
15% -29.9% 19% -28.6%
20% -36.8% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses109 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 425 history records