Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
65 0x6561…e3c2 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,320 (-11%) realized −$3,469 · open +$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%29W / 28L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$471per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,709now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,016
7 days+$2,496
14 days+$3,737
30 days+$604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$714
world 25% −$5,030
other 9% +$487
economics 1% +$255
finance 1% −$250
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +17.6% +6.4% 70% 70% +34.2%
≤30d 16 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 56% -4.5%
≤90d 44 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 48% -18.9%
all 57 -13.8% -22.0% 51% 47% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 47% -17.3%
10% -29.5% 46% -25.2%
15% -36.3% 40% -32.4%
20% -42.5% 32% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -39% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$462 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,709
Realized−$3,469
Unrealized+$149
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses29 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions5
Markets (closed)57 / 62
History coverage117d
Avg bet$471
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $350 $605 +$255 (+73%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 52¢ 48¢ $600 $548 −$52 (-9%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $253 +$171 +67%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $253 +$125 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $332 +$102 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $238 +$154 +65%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,535 +$2,138 +84%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $127 +$123 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $608 +$503 +83%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $122 −$120 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $406 −$400 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai Jun 04 $464 +$175 +38%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 04 $1,517 +$1,066 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $182 −$180 -99%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 30 $200 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 30 $700 −$329 -47%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 30 $2,698 −$2,624 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $1,764 −$1,745 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $436 +$346 +79%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $384 +$239 +62%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,063 +$177 +17%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $709 +$494 +70%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $446 −$377 -84%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $355 −$100 -28%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $404 +$202 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 03 $529 +$154 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 03 $355 +$331 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 03 $465 +$254 +55%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 27 $3,371 −$2,869 -85%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 21 $150 +$186 +124%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 14 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 13 $60 +$52 +86%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $430 −$241 -56%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $412 −$406 -98%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 11 $20 −$20 -98%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $530 +$451 +85%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 29 $215 −$215 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $385 −$385 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $300 +$169 +56%
Will Lerone Murphy win by KO or TKO? Mar 21 $16 −$16 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Mar 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO? Mar 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $460 −$460 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $250 −$250 -100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 09 $225 +$101 +45%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 09 $550 +$978 +178%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 08 $150 +$100 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $609 48m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 1h
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 1h
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $332 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $238 4h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $127 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $608 4d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 36¢ $122 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $406 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,535 10d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Zhang Mingyang 69¢ $182 15d
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai BUY Kai Asakura 72¢ $464 15d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 45¢ $200 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $371 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $74 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,517 34d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,764 35d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 55¢ $436 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $1,203 35d
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL Yes 11¢ $61 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 58¢ $709 35d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 53¢ $446 36d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 58¢ $506 36d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Tatsuro Taira 42¢ $378 36d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C SELL Alexander Volkov 42¢ $254 36d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 57¢ $355 36d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 60¢ $557 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 61¢ $384 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,708.77 · official $1,708.77 (match) · 193 history records