Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6562…4e48 sports 962 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,528 (-10%) realized −$12,478 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%511W / 444L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Fees−$908est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$5,850
other 10% +$216
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +2.1% -7.7% 57% 53% -9.7%
≤30d 369 -13.9% -22.1% 51% 47% -18.2%
≤90d 955 -10.2% -18.8% 54% 48% -13.6%
all 955 -10.2% -18.8% 54% 48% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 48% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 36% -21.8%
15% -33.7% 25% -29.4%
20% -40.2% 19% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$56 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$12,478
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses511 / 444
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$908
Open positions3
Markets (closed)955 / 962
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 955 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? No 40¢ 28¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 70¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $28 +$10 +36%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $293 +$36 +12%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $287 +$41 +14%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 +$13 +270%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $16 +$14 +88%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $20 +$10 +51%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 29 $10 +$8 +74%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $255 −$6 -2%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $10 +$9 +93%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $9 +$7 +79%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $181 +$38 +21%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $5 +$4 +78%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $180 +$26 +14%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $192 +$19 +10%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1 Jun 28 $143 +$49 +34%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $126 +$17 +14%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $133 −$6 -5%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $10 −$3 -32%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$7 +66%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $99 +$30 +30%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $79 +$19 +24%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +114%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $67 +$11 +17%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $60 +$6 +10%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $60 +$22 +37%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$15 +145%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $10 +$37 +365%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 26 $293 −$292 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $297 −$3 -1%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $48 +$24 +51%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $350 +$31 +9%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $43 −$42 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $49 −$49 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 +$4 +26%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 +$11 +543%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 +$4 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 40¢ $10 12m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $39 36m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $28 58m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $329 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 89¢ $293 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $27 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $200 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $128 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $11 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $276 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $30 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $18 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 70¢ $43 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 70¢ $19 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $20 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 74¢ $135 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 74¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.76 · official $7.49 (match) · 3500 history records