Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6562…508e other 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$48 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate74%134W / 48L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$779per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$4,292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$40
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% −$37
sports 11% −$17
other 8% −$44
crypto 3% −$23
weather 2% +$8
tech 1% +$4
world 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 16 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 82 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 2% -9.6%
all 182 -3.7% -12.9% 74% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -21.2% 2% -18.2%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$4,292
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses134 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)182 / 205
History coverage617d
Avg bet$779
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,750 $1,750 −$1 (-0%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,571 $1,570 −$1 (-0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $323 $321 −$2 (-1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $312 $306 −$6 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No 99¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $412 −$10 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,804 −$4 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $203 −$3 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,456 −$7 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,872 −$16 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 5? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 05 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 05 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 5? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $4,088 −$5 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 04 $9 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30? May 04 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,112 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $23,991 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $3,512 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 13? Apr 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 13 Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 13 Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 13? Apr 14 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 13 Apr 14 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? Apr 14 $800 +$3 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $6,335 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April Apr 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,383 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $10,084 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $5,215 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 12? Apr 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12? Apr 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2,284 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 12? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30? Apr 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $6,163 −$6 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 11? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 11? Apr 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 11? Apr 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 10? Apr 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 10? Apr 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 10 Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 10? Apr 11 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $6,256 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 9? Apr 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or higher on April 9? Apr 10 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $402 6m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $619 36m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $125 37m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,752 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,572 1h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $335 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $746 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 67¢ $200 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 1h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $321 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 67¢ $203 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $412 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $1,952 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $3,497 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $2,856 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $2,872 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $5,456 9h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $1,116 13d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $657 13d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 13d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 13d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 13d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $3,271 13d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $1,057 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,292.26 · official $4,291.99 (match) · 745 history records