Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6563…9fc3 crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$239 (-9%) realized −$301 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%34W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$164
14 days−$164
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$128
crypto 25% −$256
sports 6% +$46
culture 0% −$3
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.6% +0.0% 26% 26% -38.0%
≤30d 28 -13.3% -21.6% 21% 21% -42.5%
≤90d 108 -26.1% -33.1% 31% 27% -41.6%
all 108 -26.1% -33.1% 31% 27% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 27% -41.6%
10% -39.5% 21% -47.2%
15% -45.3% 17% -52.3%
20% -50.7% 13% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,409
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses34 / 74
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)108 / 116
History coverage35d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $944 $1,011 +$67 (+7%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+10%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$21 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $15 +$91 +589%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $7 +$42 +588%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Will "Funny AF with Kevin Hart" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? May 15 $7 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 15 $23 −$20 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 15 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 15 $28 −$12 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 15 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 15 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 15 $23 −$12 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 15 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 15 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 15 $7 −$6 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 14h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 14h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 14h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 42h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $51 44h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 99¢ $106 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $77 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $462 10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,409.19 · official $1,409.19 (match) · 284 history records