Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6568…cd3e crypto 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+2%) realized +$55 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%109W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$227
7 days−$17
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$95
sports 7% +$52
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 49% -9.9%
≤30d 204 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 46% -10.5%
≤90d 204 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 46% -10.5%
all 204 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 46% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 46% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 43% -19.1%
15% -29.9% 36% -26.9%
20% -36.8% 33% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses109 / 95
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 205
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 46¢ 55¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $94 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$23 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$16 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $62 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $24 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $14 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $13 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.47 · official $66.28 · 408 history records