Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:59:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6569…a053 sports 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$138 (+0%) realized +$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%119W / 41L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day67.8pace
Fees−$1,902est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$332
7 days+$129
14 days+$2,448
30 days−$714
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$994
other 4% −$1,370
world 2% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +17.0% +5.9% 72% 67% -8.2%
≤30d 160 +78.0% +61.1% 74% 63% -10.7%
≤90d 160 +78.0% +61.1% 74% 63% -10.7%
all 160 +78.0% +61.1% 74% 63% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +61.1% 63% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here +45.6% 49% -19.2%
15% +31.6% 40% -27.0%
20% +18.7% 33% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +92% → late +64% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$261 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses119 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,902
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage20d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day67.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +60%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $807 −$169 -21%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $4 −$1 -32%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $807 +$105 +13%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 160.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 18 $464 −$11 -2%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $2,889 −$835 -29%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $1,923 +$543 +28%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $86 +$42 +48%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 +110%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,207 +$127 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $107 +$31 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $171 +$22 +13%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $142 +$111 +78%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $212 +$122 +58%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 12 $288 +$46 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,323 +$1,034 +44%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $1,549 −$219 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $69 +$24 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $48 +$21 +45%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $445 −$61 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $774 −$73 -9%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $676 −$229 -34%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $1,032 +$112 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $216 −$13 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 11 $8 −$3 -42%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $170 −$37 -22%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $279 −$30 -11%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $14 −$1 -11%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $28 +$3 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $36 +$7 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $28 +$14 +49%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $26 +$1 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $18 +$8 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $16 +$2 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $23 +$1 +3%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $476 +$85 +18%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $174 −$40 -23%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $0 $0 +440%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $474 +$77 +16%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $50 +$18 +35%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 10 $1,009 +$178 +18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $444 −$147 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) SELL Phoenix Mercury 52¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 44¢ $95 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 63¢ $25 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 45¢ $307 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 44¢ $8 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 43¢ $7 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 40¢ $67 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 39¢ $3 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $3 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $3 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $5 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $14 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $3 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $6 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $5 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $7 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $7 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $6 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $7 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $9 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $3 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 53¢ $39 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 58¢ $59 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 58¢ $383 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1365 history records