Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x656b…eecc crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,979 (+7%) realized +$2,515 · open +$464
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%90W / 68L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,041
7 days−$54
14 days+$1,306
30 days+$2,242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$2,282
other 21% +$49
sports 4% +$761
world 1% −$124
weather 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -53.0% -57.5% 33% 21% -10.2%
≤30d 158 -13.2% -21.4% 57% 49% -4.0%
≤90d 158 -13.2% -21.4% 57% 49% -4.0%
all 158 -13.2% -21.4% 57% 49% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 49% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 41% -13.2%
15% -35.8% 29% -21.5%
20% -42.1% 21% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$125 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$3,503
Realized+$2,515
Unrealized+$464
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses90 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions68
Markets (closed)158 / 147
History coverage26d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $751 $757 +$6 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $38 $265 +$227 (+589%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 50¢ $19 $248 +$228 (+1187%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $38 $225 +$187 (+485%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $38 $215 +$177 (+459%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 42¢ $19 $208 +$188 (+979%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $38 $195 +$157 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $38 $195 +$157 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $38 $155 +$117 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $38 $155 +$117 (+303%)
Decibel FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 75¢ $96 $143 +$47 (+49%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $38 $115 +$77 (+199%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $38 $95 +$57 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $38 $85 +$47 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $38 $75 +$37 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $38 $55 +$17 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $38 $50 +$11 (+29%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $19 $36 +$16 (+86%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $38 $34 −$5 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $38 $32 −$7 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $38 $28 −$10 (-26%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $38 $22 −$16 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $38 $18 −$21 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $38 $12 −$27 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 1? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 1? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 1? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 1? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on June 1? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or higher on June 1? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $280 −$124 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $699 −$684 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,136 +$464 +41%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $477 +$323 +68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,973 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $401 −$399 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $381 +$219 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $300 +$200 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $147 +$53 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $332 +$268 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $300 +$100 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $238 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $185 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $280 +$120 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $180 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $274 +$326 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $178 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $96 −$94 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $320 +$80 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $513 +$487 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $80 +$420 +528%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $358 +$442 +123%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $79 +$21 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $227 −$202 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $131 +$69 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $121 +$79 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 45m
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 49m
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 57m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $156 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $892 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $276 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $699 25h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 30h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $175 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $149 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $209 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $197 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 2d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $499 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $204 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $194 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $79 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,503.02 · official $3,504.41 (match) · 1269 history records