Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x656c…2241 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$252 (-1%) realized −$253 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate65%24W / 13L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$58
14 days−$25
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$314
economics 25% +$127
world 13% −$541
crypto 7% +$139
sports 6% −$397
politics 5% +$64
tech 5% +$37
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -49.4% -54.2% 25% 25% -44.9%
≤90d 13 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 38% -17.4%
all 37 -17.8% -25.6% 65% 22% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 22% -10.7%
10% -32.7% 19% -19.3%
15% -39.2% 14% -27.1%
20% -45.2% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$988) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$112 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$253
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses24 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage238d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 60¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$104 +102%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $72 −$71 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $107 −$107 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $118 −$117 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $117 +$117 +100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $123 −$121 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $125 +$99 +79%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 23 $115 +$71 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 17 $105 +$62 +60%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 03 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $960 +$37 +4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $10 +$3 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 18 $975 +$5 +0%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 15 $961 +$29 +3%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 06 $593 −$575 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 06 $1,408 +$139 +10%
Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympi Feb 23 $1,323 +$84 +6%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $1,356 −$33 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $1,285 +$72 +6%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 15 $1,193 +$63 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 06 $1,188 +$52 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $1,117 +$71 +6%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 04 $1,064 +$54 +5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 19 $55 +$15 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 19 $967 +$26 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $936 +$65 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $120 −$120 -100%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 01 $1,073 +$4 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $31 $0 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $30 +$7 +22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $988 +$17 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $61 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 48¢ $55 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 48¢ $2 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $72 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 49¢ $101 17d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 57¢ $107 26d
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins BUY New York Mets 54¢ $118 31d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 50¢ $117 43d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 61¢ $109 47d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY No 51¢ $123 56d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? BUY No 55¢ $125 60d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $115 67d
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 62¢ $105 71d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Arizona Wildcats 48¢ $103 80d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 96¢ $960 96d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 48¢ $11 96d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 87¢ $11 96d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $11 96d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 99¢ $975 100d
Nuggets vs. Lakers BUY Nuggets 55¢ $11 100d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 79¢ $10 100d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $961 104d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 108d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 108d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 109d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 109d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 109d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 109d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $70 109d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $75 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.02 · official $83.02 (match) · 202 history records