Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
65 0x656e…b45a sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$57 (+6%) realized +$56 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -60.8% -64.5% 20% 20% -59.7%
≤90d 17 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 47% -5.0%
all 17 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 47% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 47% -5.0%
10% -19.1% 47% -14.1%
15% -26.9% 47% -22.4%
20% -34.1% 47% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$54 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage68d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) May 31 $63 +$61 +96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) May 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky May 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $61 +$59 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 May 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $65 +$61 +93%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 13 $76 +$59 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 11 $67 +$60 +90%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 24 $58 +$60 +104%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Apr 18 $45 +$60 +134%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Apr 18 $69 +$59 +86%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 52¢ $68 1h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 47¢ $61 21d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 51¢ $63 23d
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 51¢ $58 25d
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 51¢ $4 25d
Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 43¢ $45 32d
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $48 32d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 39¢ $47 33d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $61 34d
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Boston Red Sox 42¢ $46 37d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Golden Knights 51¢ $65 38d
Avalanche vs. Wild BUY Avalanche 56¢ $36 40d
Avalanche vs. Wild BUY Avalanche 56¢ $40 40d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $67 58d
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 BUY Yes 47¢ $55 58d
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 BUY Under 49¢ $58 63d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $69 65d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $45 65d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $70 66d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Chennai Super Kings 98¢ $5 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.91 · official $67.91 (match) · 37 history records