Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x656e…9339 sports 775 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,683 (+5%) realized +$2,633 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%393W / 379L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$1,034est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$133
14 days+$133
30 days+$1,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,343
other 4% +$24
crypto 1% −$81
world 0% −$12
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.2% +6.0% 67% 67% +16.7%
≤30d 278 +10.5% -0.0% 46% 43% -5.6%
≤90d 687 +6.0% -4.1% 50% 46% -7.0%
all 772 +5.4% -4.7% 51% 47% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 47% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 44% -15.9%
15% -22.1% 38% -24.0%
20% -29.8% 30% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$54 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$2,633
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses393 / 379
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,034
Open positions3
Markets (closed)772 / 775
History coverage119d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 772 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 45¢ 66¢ $56 $83 +$27 (+48%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 57¢ $21 $43 +$22 (+105%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio Jun 29 $57 +$33 +57%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor Jun 29 $103 +$112 +108%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $42 +$31 +74%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner Jun 28 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner Jun 28 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $39 +$40 +103%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $32 +$20 +63%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $54 +$26 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $70 −$68 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $149 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $357 −$250 -70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $92 +$83 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 −$40 -86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 −$17 -23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $84 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $517 +$270 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $45 +$20 +44%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$8 -15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $62 −$46 -73%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $25 −$16 -64%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $42 −$39 -92%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 −$15 -58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$54 -75%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $167 −$165 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $276 +$34 +12%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $58 +$65 +113%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 +$83 +126%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $113 −$110 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $45 +$35 +79%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$17 +59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $76 +$71 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $149 +$35 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $52 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $316 −$272 -86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,520 +$654 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$197 +504%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $31 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$25 -83%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio BUY ShindeN 70¢ $11 17h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio BUY ShindeN 62¢ $37 17h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio BUY ShindeN 62¢ $9 17h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $173 17h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 41¢ $3 18h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 41¢ $70 18h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Azure Dragon Gaming 100¢ $73 18h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 56¢ $42 19h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 62¢ $5 19h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 62¢ $37 19h
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 43¢ $30 20h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner BUY Acend 37¢ $28 21h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 27¢ $22 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 21h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 59¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 59¢ $6 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 59¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 59¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 59¢ $6 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 59¢ $6 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 59¢ $6 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner BUY Acend 59¢ $9 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $25 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 60¢ $15 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 48¢ $37 23h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 59¢ $19 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.37 · official $143.62 · 3310 history records