Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x656f…64cc weather 33 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+6%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +4.2% -5.8% 64% 55% -7.4%
≤30d 33 +4.2% -5.8% 64% 55% -7.4%
≤90d 33 +4.2% -5.8% 64% 55% -7.4%
all 33 +4.2% -5.8% 64% 55% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 55% -7.4%
10% -14.8% 48% -16.3%
15% -23.0% 45% -24.4%
20% -30.6% 39% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records