Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
65 0x6577…fdae other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,398 (+104%) realized +$1,409 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +167% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +142% what you keep after slip
Net edge+142%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$162
sports 38% +$1,340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+141.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +101.9% +82.7% 67% 67% +42.8%
≤30d 4 +167.2% +141.7% 75% 75% +137.7%
≤90d 4 +167.2% +141.7% 75% 75% +137.7%
all 4 +167.2% +141.7% 75% 75% +137.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +141.7% 75% +137.7%
10% +118.6% 75% +114.9%
15% +97.5% 75% +94.2%
20% +78.1% 50% +75.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +163% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +167% · $-wt +163% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$521 vs −$52 · ×10.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×30.32 per $1 lost it wins $30.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized+$1,409
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage8d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $225 $212 −$13 (-6%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Over 9¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $507 +$217 +43%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$187 +363%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $320 +$1,160 +363%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 30m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 33m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $127 36m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $230 2h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $507 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $320 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.88 · official $388.88 (match) · 13 history records