Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x657c…66a3 sports 2070 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$90 (+2%) realized +$89 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%911W / 930L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$272
14 days+$478
30 days+$524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$434
other 15% −$19
world 6% +$90
crypto 2% −$20
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 +52.8% +38.2% 66% 62% +23.9%
≤30d 891 +29.5% +17.2% 52% 50% +14.2%
≤90d 1841 +11.2% +0.6% 49% 45% -0.9%
all 1841 +11.2% +0.6% 49% 45% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.6% 45% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.0% 42% -10.4%
15% -17.8% 39% -19.1%
20% -25.9% 35% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses911 / 930
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1841 / 2070
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 87¢ 100¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the South Africa vs Canada FIFA World Cup Match? No 83¢ 98¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group B eternal premium 66¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Team Liquid 34¢ 61¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+79%)
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Emilio Nava 40¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce Soon-Woo Kwon 40¢ 38¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Emilio Nava vs. Ignacio Buse: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Under 3.5 34¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner Sebastian Ofner 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 33¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Gill (+1.5) Gill 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Map Handicap: paiN.A (-1.5) vs Blitzkrieg (+1.5) Blitzkrieg 24¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 67¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 486 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5) Jun 29 $4 +$4 +85%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $4 +$4 +89%
Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 29 $4 +$4 +100%
Promise David: 1+ goals Jun 28 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $3 +$5 +138%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $3 +$5 +186%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $4 +$4 +122%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame Jun 28 $2 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 28 $4 +$4 +85%
ITF Rzeszow: Herman Hoeyeraal vs Alan Wazny Jun 28 $3 +$5 +163%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $4 +$4 +96%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 28 $1 +$1 +186%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European P Jun 28 $7 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $4 +$4 +108%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $4 +$4 +79%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +64%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Jun 28 $4 +$4 +104%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nina Radovanovic Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 +$2 +30%
Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals Jun 28 $4 +$3 +56%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $4 +$3 +85%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $3 +$3 +127%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 28 $4 +$3 +82%
Overwatch: ZANSIDE GAMING vs T1 (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
StarCraft II: Scarlett vs Neeb (BO5) - Douyu Cup Playoffs Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $4 +$3 +96%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 27 $4 +$2 +41%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $3 +$3 +104%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $3 +$4 +178%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $2 +$4 +186%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs FUT Turkuaz (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 27 $2 +$4 +212%
Map Handicap: BHE (-1.5) vs UNO MILLE (+1.5) Jun 27 $4 +$2 +47%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Filip Jeff Planinsek vs Bor Artnak Jun 27 $2 +$4 +163%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -99%
ITF Bergamo: Fausto Tabacco vs Federico Arnaboldi Jun 27 $4 +$3 +82%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $2 +$4 +186%
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $1 +$5 +614%
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 27 $2 +$4 +178%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL Nort Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $1 +$6 +567%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $2 +$4 +156%
ITF Rzeszow: Stefan Seifert vs Herman Hoeyeraal Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
StarCraft II: INnoVation vs TY (BO5) - Douyu Cup Playoffs Jun 27 $2 +$4 +144%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Jun 27 $6 $0 +5%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $3 +$3 +108%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Andrea De Marchi vs Giannicola Misasi Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Gill (+1.5) BUY Gill 30¢ $3 9m
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 58¢ $5 29m
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 34¢ $3 53m
Map Handicap: paiN.A (-1.5) vs Blitzkrieg (+1.5) BUY Blitzkrieg 24¢ $2 55m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $50 1h
Emilio Nava vs. Ignacio Buse: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 34¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 67¢ $10 2h
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 34¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro Leag BUY eternal premium 66¢ $6 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 33¢ $3 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 40¢ $4 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 40¢ $4 5h
Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $4 7h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 51¢ $0 9h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 9h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 9h
Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 50¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World BUY largadosypelados 41¢ $4 11h
Valorant: Division One vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 50¢ $1 11h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the South Africa vs C BUY No 83¢ $7 12h
Promise David: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $6 12h
ITF Rzeszow: Herman Hoeyeraal vs Alan Wazny BUY Herman Hoeyeraal 38¢ $3 13h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 35¢ $3 15h
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 42¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 BUY SINQU Rehti 15¢ $1 16h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 45¢ $4 16h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 17h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 51¢ $4 17h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 53¢ $4 17h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.65 · official $103.65 (match) · 3500 history records