Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x657c…ebc3 other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$230 (-30%) realized −$208 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day54.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$229
sports 17% −$28
crypto 6% +$14
finance 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -34.2% -40.4% 22% 20% -43.3%
≤30d 51 -34.2% -40.4% 22% 20% -43.3%
≤90d 51 -34.2% -40.4% 22% 20% -43.3%
all 51 -34.2% -40.4% 22% 20% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.4% 20% -43.3%
10% ← realistic here -46.1% 16% -48.7%
15% -51.3% 16% -53.6%
20% -56.1% 10% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)51 / 58
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day54.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $45 +$18 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$6 -32%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $135 −$134 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $3 $0 -15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $8 $0 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $16 $0 -1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 −$20 -84%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $51 −$41 -80%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 +$14 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$10 +334%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -61%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$5 -36%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$6 -49%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$21 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 41m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 41m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 41m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $15 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $17 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.03 · official $48.03 (match) · 250 history records