Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6581…3f76 weather 268 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-3%) realized −$94 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate76%203W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$70
14 days+$53
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$105
crypto 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.4% -3.7% 53% 40% +1.7%
≤30d 69 +5.0% -5.0% 71% 45% -7.6%
≤90d 267 -0.7% -10.2% 76% 24% -13.0%
all 267 -0.7% -10.2% 76% 24% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 24% -13.0%
10% -18.8% 13% -21.4%
15% -26.6% 7% -29.0%
20% -33.8% 5% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses203 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage81d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? No 78¢ 81¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 −$6 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $155 −$15 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $92 +$24 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $12 +$37 +306%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $52 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $32 +$14 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 +$24 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $32 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $68 −$42 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 19 $11 −$3 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$8 +380%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $58 −$54 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 78¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $14 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $69 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 85¢ $32 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $61 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $30 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $8 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $27 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $27 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $24 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.59 · official $31.39 (match) · 766 history records