Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6581…5285 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$112 (-13%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
other 16% −$11
crypto 16% −$100
tech 16% $0
politics 8% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.8% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.8% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 48 -2.9% -12.2% 35% 0% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -21.2%
10% -20.6% 0% -28.8%
15% -28.2% 0% -35.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage341d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25? Aug 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 18? Aug 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Jul 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 21 $4 $0 +4%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 20 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before August? Jul 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Jul 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jul 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18? Jul 17 $28 −$12 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $40 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $40 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $24 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $16 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $24 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $16 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $39 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $19 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $20 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $39 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 13d
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL No 99¢ $8 330d
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY No 99¢ $8 330d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 98¢ $9 330d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 98¢ $9 330d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records