Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6586…79c7 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$103 (-1%) realized −$102 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$176
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 0% -10.4%
all 31 -5.8% -14.8% 23% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 10% -10.6%
10% -22.9% 6% -19.1%
15% -30.4% 3% -26.9%
20% -37.2% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage175d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 20 $881 −$31 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 02 $314 −$18 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 25 $6,569 −$13 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 23 $2,433 −$78 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 23 $2,461 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 09 $535 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 09 $165 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 04 $285 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$30 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 24 $367 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 23 $39 −$4 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 23 $214 −$6 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 14 $182 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 09 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 27 $300 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 21 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Jan 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 19? Jan 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jan 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 10? Jan 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 08 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $121 12m
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 79¢ $102 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $107 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 63¢ $10 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 64¢ $10 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 59¢ $77 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 60¢ $81 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 60¢ $139 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 60¢ $78 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 59¢ $81 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 62¢ $81 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 61¢ $83 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 61¢ $85 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 57¢ $78 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 58¢ $79 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 53¢ $80 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 54¢ $81 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 50¢ $72 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 51¢ $73 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 50¢ $76 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 51¢ $77 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 50¢ $79 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 51¢ $81 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 46¢ $82 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 47¢ $85 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 47¢ $66 59d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL No 52¢ $158 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL No 51¢ $64 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 53¢ $66 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL No 52¢ $75 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.01 · official $119.01 (match) · 400 history records