Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
65 0x6587…6e84 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$677 (+6%) realized +$771 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%55W / 43L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$142
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$747
other 32% −$187
world 10% +$81
tech 2% −$70
crypto 2% +$199
economics 1% +$48
culture 1% −$76
finance 1% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -57.2% -61.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
≤30d 4 -57.2% -61.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
≤90d 4 -57.2% -61.2% 0% 0% -66.8%
all 98 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 45% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 45% -2.9%
10% -21.0% 39% -12.2%
15% -28.6% 31% -20.6%
20% -35.6% 22% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$58 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized+$771
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses55 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)98 / 116
History coverage234d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 40¢ 57¢ $110 $156 +$46 (+42%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $68 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $33 $24 −$9 (-27%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 75¢ 3¢ $75 $3 −$72 (-96%)
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 27¢ 3¢ $27 $3 −$24 (-91%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-86%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 21 $96 −$53 -55%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $18 −$16 -89%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 21 $90 −$72 -80%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
First Round Pool A: Puerto Rico vs. Canada Mar 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 18 $46 −$46 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Baez Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Puerto Rico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $61 −$61 -100%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 18 $104 −$104 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Mar 18 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $200 +$305 +153%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 17 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Shohei Ohtani win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? Mar 13 $63 +$37 +59%
First Round Pool D: Venezuela vs. Dominican Rep. Mar 12 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Dominican Republic win Pool D at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 12 $76 +$24 +31%
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinner Mar 12 $91 +$9 +10%
BNP Paribas Open: Learner Tien vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Mar 11 $110 +$90 +82%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 10 $78 −$78 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Mar 10 $178 +$22 +12%
BNP Paribas Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Casper Ruud Mar 10 $92 +$58 +64%
BNP Paribas Open: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur Mar 10 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will T1 win the LCK Cup 2026? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Mar 09 $162 −$162 -100%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 09 $142 +$58 +41%
BNP Paribas Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Mar 09 $167 +$99 +59%
BNP Paribas Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner Mar 09 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-03-08? Mar 09 $14 $0 +2%
BNP Paribas Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander Zverev Mar 09 $76 +$24 +32%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $148 +$380 +257%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $119 +$72 +61%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 31 $151 −$49 -32%
Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublev Jan 30 $57 −$57 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Michael Zheng vs Corentin Moutet Jan 30 $44 −$44 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jan 30 $35 −$35 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Anastasia Potapova vs Emma Raducanu Jan 30 $69 −$69 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tien Jan 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien Jan 30 $39 +$58 +149%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel Diallo Jan 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud Jan 30 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 30 $68 −$68 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Amanda Anisimova Jan 30 $57 −$57 -100%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 30 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2m
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? SELL Yes 22¢ $43 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 1h
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $87 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 93¢ $116 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 70¢ $42 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $56 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $8 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $2 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $2 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $64 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $58 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $20 95d
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? SELL Yes 71¢ $8 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.90 · official $556.92 (match) · 435 history records