Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6589…66e3 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$13
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$5
world 33% +$8
sports 14% −$8
politics 5% −$2
finance 3% +$21
tech 2% +$6
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 60% 10% -7.0%
≤30d 21 +1.2% -8.5% 38% 5% -8.3%
≤90d 35 -2.5% -11.8% 37% 6% -8.4%
all 46 -7.5% -16.3% 37% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 4% -8.8%
10% -24.4% 2% -17.6%
15% -31.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -38.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage535d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $48 +$8 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $138 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $44 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $32 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $46 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $3 $0 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $361 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $112 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $13 −$5 -35%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $57 +$6 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $93 +$21 +22%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $3 $0 -6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $38 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $327 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $314 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $25 $0 -1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $306 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Utah Tech vs. Southern Utah Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Oklahoma vs. Missouri Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? Feb 06 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will Matt Gaetz be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 04 $0 $0 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Jan 03 $11 $0 +1%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 29 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $56 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $56 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $57 46h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $41 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $49 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $49 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.45 · official $26.45 (match) · 153 history records