Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x658b…01b8 crypto 112 markets active 17h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,191 (-23%) realized −$1,191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%17W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$237
14 days−$255
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -39.6% -45.3% 6% 6% -47.7%
≤30d 37 +39.6% +26.3% 24% 19% -32.2%
≤90d 94 +0.5% -9.1% 15% 12% -32.7%
all 111 -5.0% -14.0% 15% 11% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 11% -34.3%
10% -22.3% 6% -40.5%
15% -29.8% 6% -46.3%
20% -36.7% 5% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$1,191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage137d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 16 $186 −$76 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$7 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$7 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$3 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$7 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $8 −$5 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$19 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $133 −$50 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $90 −$55 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$67 +362%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $32 −$14 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $13 −$2 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $18 −$5 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $57 −$14 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $14 −$3 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $63 −$48 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $16 +$31 +190%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $27 −$11 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $21 −$4 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $85 −$17 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 −$10 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $43 +$22 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $7 +$7 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $45 +$9 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 27 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 23 $60 −$47 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 08 $74 −$21 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 04 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 04 $19 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 03 $9 −$6 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? May 01 $13 −$12 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 01 $19 −$7 -36%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $253 −$48 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 01 $11 −$3 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 21 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $5 −$4 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $10 −$3 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 16¢ $17 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 19¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 21¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 21¢ $14 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 21¢ $9 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL No 3¢ $5 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $7 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? SELL No 0¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.61 · official $8.61 (match) · 1425 history records